Could 2012 Be the Year the Chasing Pack Close Down the Mighty Trio?

Following a short winter break, the new tennis season is fast approaching with the Australian Open - starting Monday - signalling what many consider the official start to the 2012 campaign.

While the mens game is enjoying what many would class as a ‘golden era’, the destination of the major trophies has predictably - some might say boringly - ended up in the same hands.

Since Roger Federer won the 2003 Wimbledon title, there have been just four Grand Slam winners outside the current established top three. Rafael Nadal’s dominance on clay has monopolised the French Open, while Novak Djokovic all but monopolised 2011. That means from 36 finals, only Andy Roddick (US Open 2004), Marat Safin (Australian Open 2005) and Juan Martin Del Porto (US 2009) have managed to provide different names to the game’s prestigious prizes.

Perhaps Del Porto aside, a quick look back at those victories would suggest that none were achieved in the circumstances that face the contenders of the current game. When Roddick picked up his solitary major in New York, an ageing Andre Agassi, a still-to-peak Federer and Juan Carlos Ferrero – a clay court specialist - were the players above him in the world rankings; not really comparable with the currenttop three. Safin, my favourite player of all-time for what it’s worth, was a mercurial talent who with the right application could have become one of the greats. He won in Melbourne off the back of a storming end to 2004 and went in to the tournament, quite rightly, as one of the favourites. Safin, as he was for much of his career, was an exception to the rule.

I am not taking anything away from Roddick, Safin and in particular Del Potro (who, until Djokovic last year, was the only player to consecutively defeat Nadal and Federer to win a Grand Slam title), but the environment in which they won their majors is not comparable with the current game.

In today’s tennis world, particularly during Grand Slam fortnights, the top three of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer are so far out in front of the chasing pack that other contenders are barely considered. I suppose that’s why there is so much discussion and debate on whether Andy Murray – the only serious challenger to the current order in recent years - can break through and consistently compete for major honours. I am not, or do not mean to, suggest that the rest that make up the top 10 or 20 are not top-quality players; Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer and co. have all proved they are capable of beating anyone on their day. It is just that they’re unfortunately operating in an era where two of the top three are already cemented as legends of the game while the other – and the current king of the court – is fast-tracking his own legacy.

So how are ‘the rest’ meant to break this stranglehold on the game and make the major tournaments a touch less predictable?

Well, it could be argued the signs are more encouraging heading in to the 2012 season than previous years and the Australian Open could be perfectly timed for an outsider to triumph.

We have to start with the dominant force of the game and the man everyone must surely beat if they are to claim major honours. Djokovic's 2011 season was truly incredible. A 43-match unbeaten run exemplified the form that resulted in winning three of the four Grand Slams and saw him remove Nadal as world number one. He was unstoppable and his great Spanish rival, for once, had no answer to the Serbian master, losing all six of their match-ups. Tennis great Pete Sampras described Djokovic’s 2011 season as “one of the best achievements in all of sport.” But how on earth will the 24-year-old replicate near perfection? By the end of last year, Djokovic was mentally and physically drained and his withdrawal from the ATP Finals in London allowed for a well-earned break. He returned to action with aplomb at an exhibition event in Abu Dhabi this month, destroying Roger Federer and David Ferrer on the way to the trophy. But it is doubtful that an exhibition event will provide the same confidence and momentum as Serbia’s Davis Cup victory did at the turn of last year. Furthermore, when Federer collected three major trophies in the 2007 season and Nadal achieved the same feat in 2010, both players managed to win just one Slam the following year. Such statistics are generally meaningless, but it does prove how difficult it is to maintain such an outstanding level of performance. Djokovic remains the man to beat, although success – as it became in 2011 – is far from guaranteed.

Meanwhile, Nadal – the biggest threat to Djokovic’s dominance – did not endure the greatest of seasons last year by his immeasurably high standards. Aside from losing all of his contests with his Serbian rival, surprise losses to Ferrer at the Australian Open, Mardy Fish in Cincinnati and Florian Mayer in Shanghai compounded a below-par season for the 25-year-old. Of course, he won the French, but there’s no shock in that, while injury, once again, got the better of him towards the end of the season. Nadal’s fitness and endurance work as both his biggest strength and weakness; his superior physical condition allows him to pound opponents off the court, yet that is too often counter-balanced by injury lay-offs that too often affect sportspeople that are so highly-tuned. I am by no means claiming Nadal’s time at the top is over – far from it – but injury niggles are already creeping into his season and affecting his Australian Open preparations with the usually full-of-life Spaniard appearing a touch dispirited.

And then there’s Federer. The man considered the greatest of all time, a 16-time major winner and collector of 70 ATP titles is still kicking about. The Swiss legend was written off following the 2010 season having only reached the quarter-final stages of the French Open and Wimbledon, while he failed to reach the US Open final for the first time in six years. He did walk away with the Australian Open title and the season-ending Tour Final trophy, mind, but there were definite signs of a slight decline. Winning has become so commonplace for Federer that a season not showered in accolades is seen as underachieving. But there is no hiding from the fact that no matter who you are – even Federer - age does eventually catch up with you. He may only be 30 and much of his game may be built on effortless elegance rather than brute force (a la Nadal), but there is no hiding from the fact that Federer is no longer the express train he once was. Of the last 100 Grand Slam finals, just five have been won by a player over 30. If one man can do it it’s Federer, but time is not on his side in the long-term. A strong end to last season where he won the Tour World Finals in London dispelled any theory that he was no longer a contender, but the cold hard truth is that Federer is now beatable. The rest of the players know that, which means the psychological edge he once held is no longer as strong or influential.

So if the top three as a unit are looking more ‘vulnerable’ than ever, who are the serious contenders that can contribute to making mens tennis less predictable?

The most obvious and logical starting point is world number four Andy Murray. A three-time Grand Slam finalist, who is in a sense on his own island when it comes to bracketing the hierarchy of the mens game; streets ahead of the rest but not quite consistently good enough to trouble the top three on the biggest stages. He is by far the biggest challenger and the appointment of Ivan Lendl as coach to primarily work on his mental fortitude could prove to be a masterstoke. The British number one holds an 8-6 winning record against Federer and has the weapons to defeat Djokovic on any surface. His 5-13 record against Nadal is worrying and suggests that he hasn’t figured out how to defeat the world No2 when he is not playing badly. As a British tennis fan it is easy to get carried away with optimism when discussing Murray’s Grand Slam chances, but I do genuinely believe that he has the game, the application and the foundations to finally break his duck and 2012 will be a better time than any to do so.

As for the rest of possible contenders, Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin Del Potro are my picks of the players who can realistically close the gulf on the pacesetters.

Tsonga enjoyed a successful 2011; picking up tour titles in Vienna and Metz and making the final of the World Finals at the O2 in London. Then there was of course, his epic five set victory over Federer at Wimbledon, becoming the first player to beat the Swiss from two sets down at a Grand Slam, proving he has the weapons and psychological strength to overcome the very best in the world even in the most backs-to-wall situations.

Meanwhile, Del Potro appears to be rediscovering his 2009 form that recognised him as the fourth best player in the world and emerge as the biggest challenge to the Federer-Nadal duopoly. Following an injury layoff that saw him begin 2011 as 485 in the world, the towering Argentinean claimed two titles to climb to 11th. His successive defeats of Nadal and Federer on his way to his US Open triumph proves that he has the pedigree to perform to his best during Grand Slam fortnights. In other words, Del Potro will be one player that the big boys will certainly be looking to avoid as they seek to add to their busting trophy cabinets this year.

Don’t get me wrong, the top three (arguably four) are far and away the best players in the world and will be expected to reach this season’s Grand Slam semi-finals with regularity. I just believe that given the current circumstances surrounding Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, the beginning of the season – before the mighty trio build up any steamrolling momentum - will be the best possible time for a new champion to emerge.

Oh, and who do I believe will win the Australian Open? Novak Djokovic.