Ian Stafford's World Cup Blog: Week One

One weekend gone and it is fair to say that the Rugby World Cup is very much alive, if not exactly kicking. The biggest shock so far has been the ineptitude of normally world-class place kickers, led by the best of the lot, Jonny Wilkinson, but followed by both Pumas, Felipe Contepomi and Martin Rodriguez, Ireland's Jonny Sexton, Wales's James Hook (although this is contentious) and so on. Is it really the ball, the same ball that has been used for the best part of a year?

The next biggest shock has been how all the big boys so far, except Australia, have been tested much more than they imagined, and we thought.
First came hosts and World Cup favourites New Zealand whose win over Tonga was comfortable enough but ran out of steam in a second half in which Tonga more than held their own.

Then came France who were matched score for score by Japan until the minnows tired in the final quarter. Scotland were behind Romania on the hour mark until they squeezed home by just 10 points in the final few minutes, and Ireland yesterday made very heavy weather of beating a pumped up USA on the tenth anniversary of 9/11.


And then we had England and Wales. First, it is important not to bracket Argentina with any minnows. The Pumas finished third in the 2007 World Cup, after all, beating the then hosts France in the opening game and again in the third/fourth place play-off.

Their pack, especially the tight five, is as physical as any in world rugby, and they appear to be favourites to beat Scotland in what will probably be the runners up decider in Pool B behind England. That said England were poor, with old failings rearing their unwelcome heads again. The discipline almost cost them the game. With three penalties conceded inside the first five minutes it certainly gave Argentina the early lead and the early momentum, and irritated referee Bryce Lawrence.

Once you have got on to the wrong side of the ref it becomes an uphill battle. Dan Cole was lucky to be the only England player sent to the sin bin. The breakdown remains an area of concern too, as does England's inability to make full use of their dangerous back three. Did you see the metres Ben Foden made the only time he was put into space?

Chris Ashton, meanwhile, barely touched the ball and Manu Tuilagi was never given space to cause damage. There also seemed to be a lack of urgency and tempo, at least until Ben Youngs emerged from the bench to score the crucial try and raise England's game.

It makes next Sunday's supposedly simple game against the physical Georgians crucial because a much better performance is required. Captain Lewis Moody is expected to be fit and his presence as leader and also as a foraging openside will help. Mark Cueto should also have recovered from his back injury and his experience should galvanise the back three more, while with Moody returning don't be surprised to see James Haskell replace Nick Easter at number eight. Youngs must start as scrum half too.

For Wales, after a heroic defeat to world champions South Africa, the task is to get themselves back up for two difficult group games against Fiji and Samoa. Hopefully they will buoyed by their performance rather than downcast by defeat. Two slips of concentration cost them the game, in the opening minutes and again after they had taken the lead when the Springboks scored their two tries, whilst chances went begging, notably the admirable Rhys Priestland with a late drop goal and the equally impressive James Hook who had a penalty from an angle to win it.

An earlier Hook penalty was judged to have missed but he, and I for that matter, am not too sure. It would have ultimately made all the difference. For the rest of the game Wales were superb in all departments, led by their sensational openside and captain, Sam Warburton who, if a Lions team was picked now, would be the stand out number seven.

The difference between Wales and England, however, and indeed South Africa and France, is that the others all found a way to win, even if they did not deserve to and even though for large sections of their games they did not look likely to either.

The Springboks were second against Wales, and England were second against Argentina, but they won and that is all that matters in a World Cup. One can only imagine that the big boys, after stuttering displays early on, will improve, just as they do in the football world cup, where the likes of Italy and France and Germany look average in the group stages, but invariably contest the last four.    
 
One also hopes that the minnows are grabbing their chance to shine on the biggest stage with both hands. Any neutral will be delighted to see how well the likes of Japan, Romania, the USA and Tonga have fared so far. Nobody wants to see a cricket score.

So, what do we know at the end of weekend one? England have escaped defeat and should capitalise on their part luck, but also ability to dig themselves out of a hole. New Zealand do not look unbeatable and will fear Australia.

South Africa showed the nerve of champions but have serious personnel problems, notably the injured Victor Matfield and Jean de Villiers, and the debate over whether captain John Smit or Bismarck du Plessis should wear the starting hooker's jersey. France played like, well, France do.

Wales were superb but must keep that tempo up and take their chances if they get another crack at a major power, which may well be Australia in the quarter-finals. Ireland and Scotland need to improve on their first round games immeasurably.

A good start, then, for a Rugby World Cup which promises to bear great gifts over the remaining six weeks. The big boys may be battered and dented, but they are still very much standing. My prediction remains unwavered. The semi-finals will be between England and Australia, and New Zealand and South Africa.