The data tells us there is one thing that counts more than anything else when it comes to winning in the Six Nations and luckily for Wales it is the only thing they have consistently done better than France this tournament. The key for Wales is continuing to exploit Red Zone efficiency (scoring more points when in the attacking 22) which the QBE Risk & Reward Index highlights is the lead performance indicator with the strongest correlation to success.
Whilst France has had more entries into the attacking 22, they have not been as successful as Wales in converting them into points, with Les Bleus averaging a Red Zone efficiency of 1.58 across the tournament, with Wales achieving the highest efficiency rating of 2.51.
QBE Ambassador Lawrence Dallaglio said:
“Wales have been clinical in the Six Nations so far and, while attention has been on their wonder boy winger Louis Rees-Zammet, victories have been achieved with an experienced team and some real world class players in the pack like Tipuric, Faletau and the emerging talent of Josh Navidi. Wales has adopted an effective risk strategy to win rugby matches by tight margins with a ruthless efficiency in attack, conceding less points, better discipline and a very strong defence.
“France are resurgent and playing with their traditional attacking flair and could easily win in a tight game but the momentum is with Wales and the reward of another Grand Slam is a huge motivator.”
England can salvage something from beating Ireland on Saturday but they will need to improve their discipline to win in Dublin.
Lawrence Dallaglio adds: “England finally showed what they can do by beating the French but it was a close run thing and their discipline is still the worst, with the most penalties conceded on average in the tournament. A tricky game against Ireland in Dublin is not going to be easy for Eddie Jones’ team and, as he himself acknowledged, there is still much room for improvement in England’s performance.”
Developed by QBE and rugby performance analysts, the QBE Risk & Reward Index goes deeper than conventional rugby analysis by considering the role that defensive and attack risk taking has in winning the Six Nations through a number of key performance indicators. The Index then correlates the approach of the teams, and some key playmakers, towards managing risk in the way they play and its impact on success on the pitch in winning matches.
Sam Harrison, Managing Director of Insurance at QBE Europe, said: “As experts in managing risks for businesses, we have applied the same principles of risk management analysis to identify the key moments when risk and reward are calibrated to provide a predictable outcome. Rugby fans have discovered for the first time the data secrets behind each team’s approach to the tournament. QBE is delighted to be able to introduce these fascinating and unseen aspects of the game to rugby fans across the globe.